OMRI DAILY DIGEST
No. 129, 5 July 1995
RUSSIAN ARMS FOR HUNGARIAN BORDER GUARDS. The Hungarian Border Guards
will receive Russian armored personnel carriers, anti-tank missiles, and
other military equipment worth $58 million, ITAR-TASS reported from
Budapest on 4 July. The deal will cover part of Russia's $900 million
debt to Hungary and include small arms, night-vision devices, and
bullet-proof vests. The agency said it was told that the Russian
supplies would be the largest re-equipment of the border service this
century. Nevertheless, the service would like another $22 million deal
with Russia. -- Doug Clarke, OMRI, Inc.
PDSR REJECTS "BLACKMAIL" BY EXTREMIST ALLIES. Adrian Nastase, executive
chairman of the Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR, the main
coalition party), has said his party will not "give in to blackmail" by
the Party of Romanian National Unity (PUNR) and the Greater Romania
Party (PRM), Radio Bucharest reported on 4 July. Nastase said that if
necessary, the PDSR could rule as a minority government. Reuters
reported that Nastase said early elections were also a possibility. The
statement comes in the wake of criticism by the PUNR and the PRM of the
education law passed by the parliament, the parleys with Hungary on the
pending bilateral treaty, the PUNR's demand that it be given the foreign
affairs portfolio (see OMRI Daily Digest, 3 July 1995), and the "letter
of the 300." According to Reuters, Nastase said that the PDSR will not
allow coalition partners to interfere in foreign affairs, adding that
the Foreign Ministry is above party politics and serves only national
interests. -- Michael Shafir, OMRI, Inc.
[As of 12:00 CET]
Compiled by Jan Cleave
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A tovabbterjesztest a New York-i szekhelyu Magyar Emberi Jogok
Alapitvany tamogatja.
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Reposting is supported by Hungarian Human Rights Foundation News
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Thursday, 6 July 1995
Volume 2, Issue 130
REGIONAL NEWS
-------------
**CHINESE PRESIDENT SETS OFF FOR HUNGARY**
Chinese President and Communist Party chief Jiang Zemin left
Beijing yesterday to begin state visits to Hungary, Finland
and Germany. Diplomats in Beijing say Jiang will focus on
economic issues during the tour, which ends July 15. Chinese
leaders are also eager to mount a counter-offensive against
rival Taiwan, which has scored diplomatic victories recently
with rare visits by President Lee Teng-hui and Prime Minister
Lien Chan to the United States and Eastern Europe.
BUSINESS NEWS
-------------
**HORN CRITICAL OF IMF CONDITIONS**
Hungarian Prime Minister Gyula Horn is criticizing the IMF for
setting unrealistic financial targets and not appreciating the
political risks of economic transition. Horn adds that the
fund's insistence that Hungary's 1996 budget deficit be half
the 1995 level is unrealistic. Although Horn has criticized
the West before for not showing enough understanding of the
difficulties of transforming centrally-planned welfare states
into modern market economies, this is his first explicit
criticism of the IMF's approach. Horn's government has been
hoping to win an IMF standby credit which would constitute a
vital seal of approval of Hungary's reforms and unleash a wave
of much needed foreign investment. Last month Horn won praise
from IMF managing director Michel Camdessus for a tough
austerity package announced last March that will slash social
welfare benefits, reduce public sector employment and cap
public sector wages. However, the IMF is still wary of
approving credits for Hungary after the previous government
failed to meet promised targets and says the standby lending
facility will depend on agreement on 1996 budget targets.
ANALYSIS
--------
**ROMANIA'S COALITION PARTNERS' INTEREST IN STAYING TOGETHER**
By Nancy Marshall
Romania's ruling Party of Social Democracy (PDSR) and coalition
partner the Romanian National Unity Party (PUNR) have been
quarreling publicly for almost a week. It started last
weekend when the hardline National Unity Party said it would
quit the ruling coalition if the PDSR made any more
concessions with Hungary in talks on a basic treaty --
specifically on the issue of the one and a half million strong
ethnic Hungarian minority in Romania. However, many
observers, including Jonathan Eyal, director of studies at
London's Royal United Services Institute, think this is an
empty threat.
Eyal: I doubt whether it's very serious. Don't forget the
pirouette that's been going on between coalition members
within the Romanian ruling government has been conducted
through threats for a long time. The Romanian National Unity
Party represents a mixture, Romanians who are a majority in
province of Transylvania. It seeks to protect the majority
against the minority. The party knows it can't go to
elections now, which will be the result of leaving the
coaltion, so it wants to put pressure on the government not to
make concessons to Hungary. It's a classic Romanian game -
more smoke rather than substance.
CET: In response to the PUNR threat, PDSR leader Adrian
Nastase raised the prospect of early elections. How serious
is he?
Eyal: I doubt he's very serious. Let's not forget that
Nastase, running the biggest party which still could get 27,
28 percent of the electorate today, knows that his coaltion partners
don't want an election now, so he's calling their bluff,
saying "If you want to torpedo the goverment on account of
Hungary, do it, but you'll be like turkeys voting for
Christmas, going for an election you're bound to lose".
CET: Nastase says his party has paid a high price for including
the PUNR in its coalition in terms of Romania's image abroad
Do you agree with him?
Eyal: I agree that Romania's national image has been damaged.
If you look at almost any discussion taking place in Europe
today - EU, NATO - Romania is at the bottom of everyone's list.
The reasons for that are more due to the Romanian ruling
party. It was that party which opted for a path of playing on
nationalist symbols, of baiting the Hungarian minority, of
making life more difficult for minorities, being unbending on
relations with Hungary. It was the ruling party that refused a
coalition with the mainstream opposition democratic movement
in Romania, and the ruling party that ended up with these kind
of coalition partners. If there's criticism about Romania's
image, it should be first addressed to President Iliescu and
to the choice of people that he wanted to create a cabinet
with, rather than the oppotiion parties, the nationalistic
movements, all of which were known from the beginning to be
unsavoury.
CET: But don't a majority of Romanians support the PNUR's
position on the Hungarian minority's claims for autonomy?
Eyal: Here is an interesting debate. The Romanian National
Unity Party can't hope to get more than 7 percent of the vote
in any election likely to take place soon. Remember it remains
a minority that support extreme nationalists. But there's
fear about relations between Romania and Hungary. The main
fear is about the demand of the Hungarian minority in
Transylvania for regional autonomy. Regional autonomy is
something which most Romanian political parties, regardless
of what color they are, will oppose. The difficulties in
relations between Hungary and Romania are less about rights
that should be protected but how to express rights - through
constitutional safeguards as Romania wants, or through local
automony as Hungary wants? On that issue the Hungarian
minorities party is collaborating with oppostion movements in
Romania and the opposition in Romania isn't keen on baiting
Hungarians. There are rays of hope.
CET: When could a basic treaty be signed?
Eyal: I am pessimistic. For both goverments this may not be the
right moment to sign a deal. The Romanian government will
have to face an election at the end of this year or beginning
of next year and the Hungarian government is wracked inside by
all kinds of divisions and it wants to avoid any accusations
that it's selling off the rights of ethnic Hungarians in other
states. Although there's a desire in both countries to put
themselves forward as willing partners and as responsible
European countries, there isn't a realization that it's in
anyone's interest to conclude the treaty now. I suspect that
we're looking much more at long term negotiations rather than
a desire to end the negotiations and conclude the deal.
CET: ....despite the fact that EU and NATO insist that Hungary
and Romania sign a basic treaty before they can join?
Eyal: No, it's clear to both Budapest and Bucharest that the
basic treaty will have to be signed at some moment in the
future. The problem is Romania suspects that it if it signs
the treaty now it may still be ignored when discussions about
NATO and EU enlargement take place. There's a feeling in
Bucharest that Romania should probe further, try to look at
the wider package in which Romania's good behavior would be
traded against western guarantees that Romania won't be
discrimiated against. We're looking at a careful diplomatic
pirouette taking place in Romania now in which both internal
political considerations and foreign policy aims are
intermixed.
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A tovabbterjesztest a New York-i szekhelyu Magyar Emberi Jogok
Alapitvany tamogatja.
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*][*] [*][*][*]
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*]
[*][*][*] [*][*][*] [*][*] [*][*]
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*]
[*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*] [*]
Reposting is supported by Hungarian Human Rights Foundation News
and Information Service.
*****************************************************************
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