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1998-05-26
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Megrendelés Lemondás
1 RFE/RL NEWSLINE 25 May 1998 (mind)  35 sor     (cikkei)
2 RFE/RL NEWSLINE 26 May 1998 (mind)  150 sor     (cikkei)

+ - RFE/RL NEWSLINE 25 May 1998 (mind) VÁLASZ  Feladó: (cikkei)

RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
___________________________________________________________
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 2, No. 98, 25 May 1998

OPPOSITION WINS ELECTIONS IN HUNGARY... With 148 seats in
the 386-strong parliament, the opposition Federation of
Young Democrats-Hungarian Civic Party (FIDESZ-MPP) has
emerged as the largest party in the parliament following the
24 May runoff. The Socialist Party gained 134 seats,
followed by the Independent Smallholders' Party (FKGP) with
48 seats, the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) 24, the
Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) 17, and the far-right
Hungarian Justice and Life Party 14 seats. One seat
was won by an independent candidate. At 57 percent, turnout
was higher than in the first round. Since 194 seats are
required for a simple majority in the parliament, it is
still uncertain whether the next government will be a
FIDESZ-MDF-FKGP coalition or a "grand coalition" of FIDESZ
and the Socialists. MSZ

...SAYS "PREMATURE" TO NAME COALITION PARTNERS. FIDESZ-MPP
leader Viktor Orban said he expects a new government to be
formed within four weeks but added that it is premature to
speak about which party will join the FIDESZ-MDF alliance in
the new coalition. Outgoing Prime Minister Gyula Horn
advised FIDESZ to "focus on stability" when forming the new
cabinet. SZDSZ party leader Gabor Kuncze, together with the
entire executive board of the party, resigned because of the
SZDS's poor performance. He said the party will remain in
opposition. MSZ

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+ - RFE/RL NEWSLINE 26 May 1998 (mind) VÁLASZ  Feladó: (cikkei)

RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
___________________________________________________________
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 2, No., 26 May 1998

HUNGARY'S FIDESZ SAYS NO PURGE. Prime Minister-designate
Viktor Orban told Hungarian media on 25 May that coalition
talks between his Federation of Young Democrats-Hungarian
Civic Party (FIDESZ-MPP) and the Independent Smallholders'
Party are likely begin this week. He said that the new
government does not plan political purges, only radical
transformations, adding that a crackdown on corruption will
begin from "the top down" through screenings. Orban also
said he foresees a bigger role for the premier's office, as
well as a strong ministry for economic affairs. Also on 25
May, the Budapest stock continued to nose-dive amid
uncertainty over the new government's economic policies. The
leading BUX index was more than 8 percent down on last
week's closing level. MSZ/PB

HUNGARIAN SOCIALIST LEADER TO RETIRE? Gyula Horn, chairman
of the Socialist Party (MSZP), told the party's governing
board that he is prepared to "face up to the idea of
retiring" at the MSZP's fall congress, "Magyar Hirlap"
reported on 26 May. Horn said the work of the past four
years has proved tiring for him, and he urged the younger
generation to play a more important role in the party. Horn
added that a change of style is needed for the MSZP to
become a constructive opposition. MSZ

NEIGHBORS RESPOND TO HUNGARIAN ELECTION RESULTS. Slovak
Foreign Ministry spokesman Milan Tokar on 25 May said
Bratislava hopes relations with Hungary will improve after a
new government is formed in Budapest, Reuters reported.
Observers say the opposite may be the case, since the FIDESZ
has often been more sharply critical of Bratislava's
policies toward the Hungarian minority in Slovakia than was
the outgoing Hungarian government. Meanwhile in Romania, Ion
Diaconescu, chairman of the main ruling National Peasant
Party Christian Democratic, said he believes recent
statements by Orban on the rights of Hungarian ethnic
minorities in neighboring countries had served "electoral
purposes" but would not be the line of the new government.
MS


HUNGARY'S POLITICAL ELITE TO FACE MAJOR CHALLENGES

by George Schopflin

	The outcome of the second round of the Hungarian
elections poses major challenges for the country's political
elite. The victory of the center and right was clear, but
not overwhelming, hence the new coalition's mandate will be
predominantly for moderation. Evidently, Hungarian society
wanted a change from the previous coalition of the former
communist Socialist Party (MSZP) and the liberal Free
Democrats.
	The outgoing coalition was punished for a number of
related reasons. In the first place, the 1994 coalition came
to power on the promise of professionalism and moderation,
as well as greater economic sophistication than its
predecessor had offered. While the Hungarian economy is
beginning to pick up, the MSZP behaved with a degree of
arrogance and corruption that cannot have endeared it to
voters. Furthermore, the economic transformation process has
had its losers, many of whom might have supported the new
government if they themselves had experienced a different
fate.
	The new coalition is currently being formed, but its
outlines are clear. FIDESZ, the Young Democrats, gained 41
percent of the vote in alliance with the remnants of the
Hungarian Democratic Forum, the dominant party in the 1990-
1994 government. FIDESZ will negotiate with the
Smallholders, the agrarian radicals, with whom it will have
about 54 percent of the seats in the parliament. The
preconditions of such a coalition were established during
the election, when FIDESZ and the Smallholders withdrew
candidates in favor of the other.
	The new government faces a number of difficulties, the
most important of which is defining its philosophy: What are
the principles of moderate conservatism in Hungary (and
elsewhere in the post-communist world) when much of the past
that a conservative seeks to conserve is a communist past?
Without a clear answer to that question, post-communist
conservatives run the risk of being held to ransom by
populist and nationalist right radicals. This danger is all
the more serious because the Smallholders are prone to use
right-radical rhetoric and because the extreme right, the
Hungarian Justice and Life Party (MIEP), has also entered
the new parliament.
	The new coalition also faces the problem of its
inexperience in government. The running of a bureaucracy
requires skills of organization and management as well as
knowledge of what can and cannot be expected of an
administration. It is crucial that politicians learn that
there is always a gap between a political decision and its
execution. This is not the result of antagonism on the part
of the bureaucracy but, more probably, of administrative
inefficiency.
	The problem of the cohesiveness of the coalition and
the degree of administrative inefficiency will be central to
the success or failure of the new government. The pivotal
challenge facing Hungary over the next four years is
negotiation for accession to the EU. This will demand both
high levels of political will and state capacity. As far as
the latter is concerned, Hungary (together with the other
first-wave states) will have to absorb the "acquis
comunautaire," the entire legal regulation of the EU. This
is currently estimated to be 35,000 pages in length and is
still growing. Legislative, administrative, and judicial
capacity will all be stretched to ensure successful
implementation of the "acquis," without which membership is
impossible.
	Another problem facing the Hungarian political
establishment is that left and right behave as if the other
had no genuine claim to power, as if the voters were
mistaken in returning the other to power. No party in a
democracy enjoys losing power, but the loss of power does
not normally lead to major collapse. In the present context,
the relatively inexperienced center-right government needs
the toleration of the opposition or, at any rate,
recognition by the elites that dominate the public sphere
(press, electronic media) that the center-right has genuine
democratic credentials.
	It is very much an open question whether the dominant
opinion-forming elite will accept the new coalition on these
terms: after all, it was absolutely unwilling to accept the
democratic legitimacy of the 1990-1994 government. Arguably,
it thereby contributed toward its radicalization and thus
became the victim of a self-fulfilling prophecy. This
dominant elite regards the center-left as the sole guarantor
of democracy and tolerance and consequently has found it
extremely painful to live with the democratic choice of the
majority.
	The problem for Hungary is that without the support of
the opinion-forming elites, the new government will
certainly feel isolated. It will undoubtedly need a higher
degree of backing than its predecessor received, both to
sustain its self-legitimacy and to enable the process of
negotiating with the EU to continue.

The author is Jean Monnet Professor of Political Science and
director of the Centre for the Study of Nationalism at the
School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University of
London.

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                     All rights reserved.
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